What Does the Stock Market Have to Say About Housing
Real Estate Investment Trusts
REITs are investment vehicles that
trade like stocks or bonds.
Looking at the REITs and the various
real estate sectors can help understand the underlying real estate
trends we work with.
REITs have spent the past year raising money. All the sectors have
been
seriously damaged and therein lies the opportunity. REITs that have been
able to raise money are positioned for opportunistic buys. Cash heavy
REITs wont have to rely on banks for loans and are waiting for banks
have to unload non performing loans.These are going to be the winners
here as some banks can no longer hold back on foreclosures. Stock market
investors will often try to pre position themsleves, to buy before the
rest and hope to reap greater profits. They arent always right and they
can certainly be too early.
REIT Sector Performance
- Regional Shopping Malls: Up 11.9% in February
- Shopping
Centers: Up 8.9%
- Apartment Sector: Up 8.4%
Given that many of these same sectors dropped 20-25% this time last
year, its another sign that investors are beginning to think the worst
may be over. According to the recent Price Waterhouse survey: many
commercial real estate investors who held investments, overleveraged, or
bought late in the cycle now face struggles because 2010 is expected to
present many challenges as capital remains limited, rents continue to
decline, and vacancies. But even with these snags, the firm says next
year will be a great time to buy commercial real estate assets.
The Price Watehouse survey goes on to note that Next year should open
the gates on distressed properties as more community and regional banks
fail and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. sells their assets.
Surviving banks will keep their best performing commercial real estate
loans alive but foreclose on the rest as their loan-loss cushions allow.
Sounds like bottoming to me...
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