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Current Market Conditions
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The Rental Sector Is Looking Up
June
vacancy rates in the largest 64 markets in the country averaged 6.6%,
down from 8.2% at the end of 2009, according to MPF Research. We
certainly see the increase in rental demand in 2010, and it's been a
little more, frankly, than most apartment experts had anticipated," said
Mark Obrinsky, chief economist and vice president of research for the
National Multi Housing Council.
This may be the brightest sector
and only strong story in a dismal market. There is a real sense of
confidence building in the rental sector based on a few strong factors
not present in the rest of the housing market. Apartments never had the
build out boom that homes did. High unemployment among echo boomers will
keep a lid on rentals catering to the 25-34 year olds in the short
term. The echo-boom generation, almost 80 million strong, along with a
large immigration trend and retirees coming into the city, coupled with a
drastic pullback in housing construction, points to strong rent growth
starting in 2011, notes Marcus and Millichap. Quite a rental pool
indeed!
Reis reports a widespread consensus that there will be a
supply shortage of multifamily rentals as early as next year. This
constrained supply may lead to robust rent growth. The leading indicator
for housing has to be jobs. A lack of job creation will keep echo
boomers at home longer or doubling up in roommate situations. Retirees
coming to the city from the burbs, may no be able to sell or rent and so
will have to remain in large homes. The optimists would see this as a
staging area for real growth in 2011-2012. However, for the long haul
investor/owner its simply a matter of time before an expanding economy
unleashes the powerful demographic trio waiting in the wings.
REsourced
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